After splitting opposition’s votes in the 2023 presidential election running individually as candidates, what are the duo of former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar and former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, cooking for 2027 presidential election? Their increasing romance has been fuelling speculations about a possible liaison between both leaders for the 2027 presidential election.
In the 2023 presidential election, Obi, Kwankwaso and Atiku contested against Tinubu who eventually emerged victorious with 8,794726 votes. However, between Obi who ran on the platform of Labour Party, Rabiu Kwankwaso who was New Nigeria People’s Party, NNPP candidate and Atiku who flew the main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP’s flag, the opposition garnered close to 15 million votes, a figure that would have earned either Atiku or Obi an emphatic victory had they contested as a single ticket or had the opposition presented a single candidate and contested the election as a single bloc. In the election, Obi got 6,101,533 votes in 12 states, Atiku 6984,520 votes in 12 states and Kwankwaso 1496,687 votes in one state.
However, having apparently come to the grim realisation that a repeat of their 2023 solo show would again result in another easy victory and re-election for President Tinubu, Atiku and Obi are believed, despite denials by their aides, to be strategizing and consulting on forging an alliance and building a formidable political force to unseat the APC, nay the president in 2027.
Daily Sun gathered that an array of prominent Northern and Southern politicians across parties, including some sitting and former governors, serving and former National Assembly members, retired military officers, academics and some business moguls are the unseen hands behind the unfolding Atiku/ Obi alliance.
“What is unfolding is a replay of 2019, a repeat of the 2019 joint presidential candidacy of both leaders, 2027 will again see both men on a joint presidential ticket”, a source familiar with the ongoing discussions told Daily Sun”.
Atiku had contested the 2019 presidential election on the PDP ticket with Obi as a running mate. Though the Professor Yakubu Mahmood- led Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC declared the then President, General Muhammadu Buhari winner of the election, not a few Nigerians believed that Atiku and Obi overwhelmingly defeated the incumbent president but were shortchanged by INEC and the ruling party, the APC. In fact, in 2021, a sitting APC governor confided in his close aides that his party indeed woefully lost the 2019 presidential election to Atiku and Obi “but what had to be done was done to preserve the party and save the President from a disgraceful ouster from office.”
Meanwhile, Obi’s recent visit to Yola, the Adamawa (Atiku’s home state) capital to deliver a convocation lecture at the American University of Nigeria(owned by Atiku) has continued to elicit speculations that a replay of 2019 is on the offing. Daily Sun has been informed that the convocation lecture was a pretext for consolidation of the alliance talks both men have been engaged in.
Their spokesmen have however denied such talk took place. Atiku’s spokesman, Mazi Paul Ibe described the Yola meeting as a reunion of two friends. His words: “Let us not jump the gun. The fact is that Obi accepted to be the keynote speaker at the 20th anniversary of AUN and the 16th Founder’s Day, which was a milestone. Obi is part of that celebration.
“The university was founded by Atiku Abubakar, who was more like his host. But people think it is because of politics. We all know our friends. The truth is that politics cannot separate friends.
“So, Atiku invited him to breakfast and from there, they went for the programme. I think that is what happened.”
On his part, Obi’s media aide, Ibrahim Umar insisted his principal’s presence in Yola had no political colouration or undertone.
“They just invited him (Obi) to deliver a speech there. It has nothing to do with politics. Of course, you know people will always assume things,” Umar said.
While a broad spectrum of Nigerians, including their supporters insist that they were robbed of presidential victories in 2019 and 2023, they are also worried about what 2027 hold in store for them given the current political realities, especially the dwindling fortunes of opposition parties. Political analysts however believe that the political future of the duo and the success or otherwise of the alliance they are allegedly forging will be conditioned by who gets the 2027presidential ticket between the two, a situation, Tobias Omagwa, a lawyer and a staunch supporter of Obi admits, is tricky for both leaders.
According to Omagwa, “in the event that the alliance materializes and a mega party formed, who will be its standard bearer in 2027? Will Atiku agree to stoop politically to pair with Obi as a running mate after leaving office as a Vice President 17 years ago and contesting twice as a presidential candidate or will Obi retrogress politically and become a running mate to Atiku again as he was in 2019 and contesting as presidential candidate in 2023 and making impressive outing?
“I’m just wondering; it is a tricky situation for both men but my principal will be disappointing millions of his followers and supporters across the country if he pairs with Atiku as a running mate in 2027. He will be deluding himself to believe that he will achieve in 2027 the same political mileage and nationwide acceptance he enjoyed in 2023 as Labour party presidential candidate if he runs with Atiku as running mate in 2027”, Omagwa further told Daily Sun
A human rights activist and member of the 2023 Obi Presidential Campaign Organisation, Aisha Yesuf recently made it clear that she will campaign and work against Obi in 2027 if he pairs with anyone as a presidential running mate. Yesufu wondered why the best presidential candidates in Nigeria always settle for a second fiddle roles. “Why must we always ask the most capable to be second in line?” she had queried in a viral video.
Obi’s supporters are particularly peeved that the Labour party presidential candidate in last year’s election may have indeed accepted to deputize Atiku in 2027 even as Kwankwaso had tacitly agreed to deputize him( Obi) in 2027. They wondered the excuse Obi will be advancing for accepting to be number two when he can be number one.
Kwankwaso, speaking in Hausa, though claimed political superiority over Obi, offered to deputise him in 2027 provided certain conditions are met.
In October, Kwankwaso had in a viral video he made in Hausa said: “I’m bigger than Peter Obi politically; I’m his elder brother, I’m a PhD holder, I performed better than him when I was the governor of my state. I’ve no problem with deputising for Peter Obi, but only if certain conditions are met…..We are willing to engage in discussions, provided that trust is established.”w
However, analysts observe that politics in Nigeria is a game that requires strategic planning and correct reading of political barometer of the country’s environment at any given time. They argue that given President Tinubu’s moslem- moslem ticket which he is likely to repeat in 2027 and the perceived sponsored destabilization of opposition political parties, a Christian southerner in the mould of Obi, with a moslem running mate running on the platform of hurriedly coupled mega party may not be able to uproot Tinubu from office.
Said Titus Tor, a chieftain of the defunct National Republican Convention, NRC and a former local government chairmanship candidate in Benue State: “The moslem North is blindly and fanatically loyal to their religion more than thing anything else. Despite their obvious disenchant with the Tinubu administration, when the chips are down and a choice between a Christian-Moslem ticket( Obi and a Northern moslem running mate) and a Moslem-Moslem ticket( Tinubu and his Deputy, Shettima or another Northern Moslem VP) are presented to them, they will, without looking back, queue behind the latter again.
“To uproot Tinubu from office in 2027, the opposition will require a strong Northern moslem presidential candidate with a Christian running mate and such a ticket must be formidable and appealing enough to penetrate the North, totally claim Southeast and South south and make serious incursion into the South west”
Also, given what appears the fringe status of the Southeast in Nigeria’s political and power calculus, political analysts opine that in the present circumstances, what the region needs to ascend the presidency is a strong political pedestal, the same strategy the Southwest adopted in 2015 to get the presidency in 2023.
Essentially, to grab the presidency in 2023, the Southwest under the aegies of Tinubu’s defunct Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN aligned with the North represented by Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change, CPC and the North dominated All Peoples Party, APP to form the APC and then ceded the new party’s presidential ticket to Buhari(North) with Professor Yemi Osinbajo( Southwest) as a running mate.
“This was with the gentle man understanding that after eight years, the North would support the Southwest to get the presidency and this was what exactly happened in 2023. I think, in respect of Obi’s presidential aspiration, that’s what the Southeast needs to do. “Though eminently qualified and even better equipped for the job than the incumbent, looking at the present political configuration in the country, in 2027, it will take a miracle for Obi to achieve the kind of mileage he achieved in the 2023 presidential election talk more of outrightly winning the presidency. As you can see, the opposition- PDP and a faction of the LP- has been compromised, bought and pocketed”, Tor affirmed.
Incidentally, Daily Sun gathered that a good number of Obi’s supporters across the country and some eggheads in the Southeast are beginning to share the above sentiment, especially in the light of Atiku’s alleged firm pledge to do one term and leave the stage for Obi. Obi’s political structure, the Obidient Movement and a faction of the Labour party loyal to him as well as some fringe parties and some APC stalwarts across the country who are dissatisfied with the Tinubu administration, Daily Sun has been informed, are already mobilising for the Atiku-Obi political arrangement as outlined above.
However, the manner of the alliance Obi and Atiku will be forming remains in the realm of speculation. It is not yet clear if the alliance will happen within the PDP framework or whether they will be charting a course outside of the PDP and Labour party.
Though PDP Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Ibrahim AbdullahI had in a Channels TV interview a few months back confirmed that major opposition figures in the country were ready to bury their differences and collaborate to defeat the APC in 2027, sources however claim that what is afoot in the main opposition party is an effort by a faction of the party to rally around the Bauchi state governor, Bala Muhammed. The faction, Daily Sun gathered is opposed to Atiku’s 2027 presidential aspirations and is projecting Governor Muhammed as the party’s 2027 presidential candidate with his Oyo state counterpart, Seyi Makinde as running mate.
Pundits however, believe that the opposition will again hand the APC/Tinubu easy victory in 2027 should two opposing parties- Atiku Obi mega alliance and Muhmmed- Makinde mega coalition- spring out of the PDP and LP respectively and contest the 2027 election separately.
Credit: The Sun