By John Ogunsemore
Alternative Reality (if you like) refers to a constructed narrative, often promoted by political actors. It is fictional, and differs significantly from the generally accepted reality. It sometimes involves conspiracy theories, often characterised by a selective presentation of facts, emotional appeals, and a resistance to counter-evidence, potentially leading to a distorted understanding of political events and issues in the public space. It’s the same irrational, empty assumptions that were made by the likes of Bwala before the 2023 presidential poll, which gave Peter Obi no chance at all to defeat Tinubu in his home turf of Lagos.
Ordinarily, Bwala alternate reality shouldn’t warrant a morsel of a warm spit, because assumption, psychologists will tell us, is the lowest level of knowledge. But that is the area in which political jobbers excel. They believe they can sell water in the desert even when it’s raining heavily. Unknown to Bwala, he has revealed the plots, the schemes that his paymasters have packaged against Peter obi ahead of the next election. The script works like this: If one plot fails, try another. These are the landmines set up against Obi.
They can be broken down as follows: the APC and the presidency are creating a version of events that contradict established facts and experts’ consensus. That consensus and established fact are to the effect, that Obi, not Atiku Abubakar, poses the biggest obstacle to Tinubu in 2027. A s a result, he must be stopped at all cost. This narrative involves portraying Obi, even without evidence, as a divider, not a unifier, even when that description fits Tinubu more. That’s why Alternative Realities rely on strong emotions and personal identification, rather than sound, objective reasoning. It’s often resistant to evidence.
In the Alternative Reality world, political elites take on a potential political foe and criticise his competence. The reality they try to create is a variant of their own delusional behaviour and fear. The mindset of the presidency is that, by unleashing a wave of lies against Obi, it will achieve an fictional outcome that is different from reality. Expect more of this mud throwing at Obi in the months ahead. Authors Keith Laumar and A.Bertram Chandler, have written quite a lot on how a ruling party can deploy Alternate Reality to make life uncomfortable for perceived enemies.
Anything that can stick on Obi is part of the playbook to force him out of the presidential race, even when he has said he is ‘desperate’ to be president. Don’t be surprised to hear in the near future that Obi is responsible for the failure of Tinubu’s economic policies. If truth be told, almost everything in Nigeria has gone from bad to worse since Tinubu was sworn in over two years ago, and you begin to ask: did he really prepare for the herculean tasks of the office or he sought for the office to fulfill a lifetime ambition, ‘emilokan’(It’s my turn). To borrow the words of former American President, Gerald R. Ford, the ‘presidency is not a prize to be won, but duty to do’. Maybe, Tinubu should be reminded what a Christian cleric told him last year, “you said it’s your turn, now save Nigeria”.
That’s why the cautionary advice, “Be careful what you wish for, because it might come true”, remains relevant, especially for those who aspire to higher offices. Back to the smooth-talking Daniel Bwala.This much is clear: he is a smart guy. Like a mistress, Bwala knows how to switch loyalty without feeling a twinge of conscience. After former vice president Atiku Abubakar lost the 2023 presidential election (one too many), in which Bwala was one of his spokespersons, Bwala was smart enough to know that the stars might never line up for him again if he fails to jump into Tinubu’s bandwagon.
Like Machiavelli, a drill marine sergeant, Bwala hurriedly took the next available flight. Destination: Paris, France, where Tinubu had gone in what has become a routine AWOL while Nigeria is bleeding. It was reported that Bwala ‘begged’ the President to take him on board. But, by his own account, Bwala said before Atiku offered him a job as his spokesperson in 2022, Tinubu had offered him same position, “directly, personally in his car”. He claimed that the assurance he got from Tinubu then, in his words, was “so significant that even state governors could not extract such from the President”. He also claimed he knew he risked losing a lot in terms of gain by leaving APC and working for Atiku in 2023, but that his decision was “informed by the need to satisfy my conscience and principles”.
Now, where has that conscience and principles gone? Perhaps they have taken a back seat for ‘economic gains”. It seems now that a way to reciprocate the president’s kind gesture is to keep hauling falsehoods against Peter Obi. I was told that attacking Obi tops the briefs given to all the president’s men. Performance is also judged by how their attacks on Obi have resulted in the polarisation of public opinion about Obi’s integrity. Unknown to the President’s spokespersons, their constant resort to Alternate Reality, instead of achieving the intended objective, has triggered a series of backlashes in the social media. Bwala’s rant on Obi has parallel in Gov Chukwuma Soludo of Anambra state, who for some years now, has had an obsession of attacking Obi.
Ahead of 2023 election, in an opinion article titled, “As history beckons and I will Not be Silent”(Part 1), Soludo said, “Let’s be clear: Peter Obi knows he can’t, and won’t win. He may win in Anambra, but no where else. He knows the game he’s playing, and we know too, and he knows that we know”. He based his premise that Labour Party lacked the structure that will deliver victory to Obi. Soludo has since eaten his own words. Till today, Soludo is yet to write the Part two of his diatribe against Obi. Maybe, he’s waiting for another opportune time. Same fate will likely befall Bwala. This is despite the booby traps traps set in LP, ADC and PDP. What is needed is an impartial electoral umpire, a free, fair and credible election in 2027.
The realities of the present economic challenges – hunger, poverty, unemployment, insecurity, cost of living, the freefall of the naira, debt crisis – have left APC in a quandary. The President looks hemmed in in a smoke-filled room. Deep down the souls of his media handlers, they know the President needs all weapons of a ‘strongman’ to prevail in 2027. The reality is that the stakes are much higher now than they were in 2023. In other words, the medicine for headache is completely different from what is needed to cure cancer.
Credit: The Sun