Electricity consumers in major cities across the country have decried a sharp decline in power supply over the past three months.
Customers who spoke with LEADERSHIP Friday lamented that electricity supply across Nigeria has worsened in recent months — a situation operators and the regulatory agency attribute to gas constraints affecting Generation Companies (GenCos) and low water levels at hydro-powered plants.
These challenges have reduced load profiles at Distribution Companies (DisCos) and disrupted national grid stability.
In Surulere, Lagos, Chinedu Okeke said grid-supplied power rarely lasts up to three hours daily, mostly coming late at night when many residents are asleep.
“I run a generator daily, spending N5,000 on fuel just to charge my phone and keep the air conditioner on. When will this end?” he asked.
Tunde Olatunji, a phone repairer in Yaba, Lagos, said his livelihood has suffered significantly due to poor power supply.
“No electricity means no charging stations or tools, with daily earnings halved from N30,000 to N15,000. The Band A promise of over 20 hours’ supply was all lies; now I’m closing shop early,” he said.
In Abuja, Sani Yakubu, a welder in Garki, decried the rising cost of running generators.
“Generator fuel alone is N8,000 every day now — diesel prices have worsened everything. Before, one tank lasted two days; now, it finishes in a day. My profit? Gone. Last week, I lost five big jobs because power vanished mid-repair,” he narrated.
Generation Decline
Data from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) showed that grid-connected power plants operated at 36 per cent of installed capacity in January 2026, reflecting a 12.2 per cent relative drop from 41 per cent availability in November 2025.
The decline was attributed to gas supply constraints and reduced water levels at hydro dams.
NERC data indicated that availability dropped from 41 per cent in November 2025 (5,544MW available from 13,625MW installed) to 38 per cent in December and 36 per cent in January (4,901MW available), with average dispatched power around 4,400MW at load factors near 90 per cent.
Thermal plants, including Omotosho and Olorunsogo, operated below capacity due to gas shortages caused by pipeline vandalism, foreign exchange constraints and unpaid supplier debts.
Hydro plants at Kainji, Jebba and Shiroro dams also recorded reduced output owing to lower water inflows.
Grid Instability
The national grid has suffered at least four major collapses between November 2025 and February 25, 2026, according to reports from NISO, TCN and industry sources, amid sharp frequency fluctuations.
A major disturbance on December 29, 2025, left most DisCos with zero allocation due to gas shortages and low generation.
On January 23, 2026, the grid recorded its first full collapse of the year, with generation dropping to 0MW. NISO attributed this to multiple 330kV line trips and generator disconnections.
Between January 26 and 27, 2026, a second collapse occurred, reportedly triggered by voltage disturbances from the Gombe substation, which propagated to Jebba and Kainji. DisCos blamed the incident on low generation.
In early February 2026, a partial collapse affected the South-East, according to EEDC.
N6.2tn Receivables
Generation companies disclosed that over N1 trillion owed to gas suppliers and more than N6.2 trillion in unpaid receivables have constrained fresh investment in infrastructure.
GenCos said average generation has stagnated at about 4,000MW for years despite installed capacity of 15,500MW, largely due to lack of sector risk protection exposing legacy and NIPP plants to operational and regulatory risks.
“This singular reason has kept the sector at about 4,000MW of average grid generation for many years, notwithstanding an installed capacity of 15,500MW. This is a clear anomaly in the market,” said Dr Joy Ogaji, CEO of the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC).
“GenCos have kept to the terms of all industry and privatisation agreements as well as Power Purchase Agreements since the takeover on November 1, 2013. In exchange, they have been rewarded with liquidity challenges, default on contractual terms, regulatory risks and increased market volatility,” she added.
She said GenCos incur high gas costs, maintenance expenses, FX exposure and financing obligations but have received only about 35 per cent payment since 2015 under the Multi-Year Tariff Order (MYTO) and NBET records.
“Persistent non-payment has rendered most GenCos technically insolvent and severely constrained their ability to invest in capacity maintenance and expansion,” Dr Ogaji said.
“GenCos are not beneficiaries of the current subsidy regime but are its biggest victims. They are only requesting their receivables for power generated and consumed.”
She further queried: “How would power growth in Nigeria be encouraged if GenCos are not incentivised to make capacity available? What incentives does the market present for GenCos to invest towards recovery of unavailable capacity when they are denied capacity payment for what is already provided?”
On stranded capacity, she noted:
“Available generation capability should equal average generation in underserved countries as international best practice. In Nigeria, available generation has met increased stranded capacity.”
On invoice verification, she explained:
“Metered data is obtained by NISO from tariff meters… Capacity reading is taken every hour for each GenCo. The Market Operator prepares Preliminary and Final Settlement Statements after participant checks.
“System imbalances limit utilisation, such as 220MW units generating only 100MW. This becomes a big problem for operators,” Dr Ogaji noted.
It was learnt that the top 10 plants generated 81 per cent of total output amid persistent transmission constraints.
Calls for Reform
President of the Nigerian Consumer Protection Network, Kunle Kola Olubiyo, said generation must be private sector-led for the sector to function efficiently.
“For us to get it right, generation has to be private sector-led, because the public sector business model is not about making profit.
“The private sector business model is about efficiency and revenue optimisation, customer centricity, and what have you. So, generation as it is, is public sector-led. Distribution, as it is, is public sector-led with some semblance of equity, with government having a stake.
“So, the Transmission Company of Nigeria, as it is now, is a misnomer to remain a public sector business model as a cash cow. We want the national grid that is within the purview of the federal government to be completely privatised.”
Also speaking, Hajia Jamila Umar, who heads the Peering Advocacy and Advancement Centre in Africa (PAACA) and serves as NESI Consumer Advocacy Coordinator, said the recent decline highlights structural weaknesses rather than seasonal factors.
“Gas supply constraints to thermal plants, transmission wheeling limitations, liquidity shortfalls and ageing infrastructure continue to undermine consistent generation.”
She noted that Band A customers pay approximately N209 per kWh for improved service hours, adding that regulatory provisions require compensation where minimum supply thresholds are not met.
“Where minimum supply thresholds are not met, regulatory provisions require compensation. However, when supply shortfalls originate upstream — from generation or transmission constraints — accountability becomes blurred. The consumer should not serve as the shock absorber for systemic inefficiencies,” she said.
Recommending solutions, Umar advocated “gas-to-power coordination, grid reinforcement, liquidity solutions, energy diversification and civic engagement,” including tariff reclassification based on actual availability.
She called for “technically sound and citizen-centred reform,” stressing that “national productivity depends on it.”
Credit: Leadership