California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) is emerging as as the early Democratic favorite for the 2028 White House race, according to a new survey that also shows young voters turning sharply against President Donald Trump.
The Yale Youth Poll, an undergraduate-led project, questioned 3,426 registered voters nationwide, including a hefty oversample of 1,706 people aged 18 to 34.
Of all Democratic potentials, despite no one having declared their candidacy, Newsom leads the primary field with 25%, ahead of former Vice President Kamala Harris at 18%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) at 16%, and ex-Biden Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 14%.
In a separate electability test, Democratic voters rated Newsom the strongest general election option, with 85% judging him most likely to beat a generic Republican opponent.
Among Republican participants, Vice President JD Vance dominates a Trump-free 2028 primary, pulling 51% among GOP voters. But when respondents are asked to imagine an unconstitutional third term for Trump, the president still takes 50%, with Vance slumping to 19% – a reminder of how tightly the party’s current form remains bound to Trump. Younger Republicans are notably cooler, with Trump failing to win majority support among voters under 30.
According to the poll, Trump’s appeal among young people has soured since his narrow spring 2025 uptick. Voters aged 18 to 34 now disapprove of his performance by margins of 30 points or more, and Democrats hold double-digit leads with every under-35 age band on the generic congressional ballot.
Strategically, Republicans say they want more Trumpism, not less, with 55% of GOP voters who want the party to prioritize turning out its base. Democrats, by contrast, are split between firing up their core voters and moving to the center, a dilemma now playing out against a generational backdrop in which Newsom looks increasingly like the party’s compromise candidate between youth appeal and perceived electability.
The online survey was conducted in English by Verasight between 29 October and 11 November 2025 and has a margin of error of ±1.7 percentage points for the full sample.
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Credit: Yahoo News