The price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) at retail pump stations may soon rise to between N980 and over N1,000 per litre, depending on location nationwide, following a fresh increase in the gantry price by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, The PUNCH has learnt.
The development comes as the President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, unveiled plans to invest in electricity generation, alongside expansions into steel production and port infrastructure, as part of a broader ambition to industrialise Africa and strengthen domestic energy security.
The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, confirmed the likely retail price in a telephone interview on Monday.
“Following the increase by Dangote, the pump price will likely range between N980 and over N1,000 per litre, depending on location and logistics. This is largely the effect of the recent hike in global crude oil prices,” Ukadike said.
A senior official at the refinery first confirmed the price adjustment, noting that it was driven by volatility in the international crude oil market. “Yes, the price has been reviewed. The new gantry price is now N874 per litre from N774. The review became necessary due to changes in global crude fundamentals and replacement costs,” the official said.
Checks by petroleumprice.ng also showed that the revised rate had been reflected across the downstream value chain, indicating a shift in pricing benchmarks. In a notice to marketers, the refinery stated:
“Dear Valued Customer, we are pleased to inform you that PMS is currently available for purchase. Please be informed that the current price is N874 per litre. Thank you for choosing Dangote.”
The increase followed a temporary suspension of petrol loading operations at the refinery effective midnight on March 2, 2026, after global crude oil prices surged above $80 per barrel. While petrol loading paused, Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) continued to be supplied.
Several depot owners also suspended petrol sales to reassess replacement costs. “Several depot owners halted PMS sales because of the crude rally. The market is already factoring in risk premiums. Nobody wants to sell below replacement cost,” a downstream operator said.
The development comes amid heightened global oil market volatility linked to escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, raising fears of possible supply disruptions around the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Five energy experts warned that Nigeria could see further increases in petrol and diesel prices if crude oil surpasses $90 per barrel.
According to analysts, sustained hostilities in the Middle East could disrupt supply chains, raise shipping and insurance costs, and ultimately push up the cost of refined petroleum products despite Nigeria’s growing domestic refining capacity.
JPMorgan Chase has projected that Brent crude could climb to $120 per barrel if a prolonged Middle East conflict continues to disrupt oil flows through the strait. The bank noted that Gulf producers could maintain normal output for only about 25 days before storage facilities reach capacity, forcing a broader production shutdown.
Oil prices surged sharply on Monday following a significant escalation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. Brent crude for April delivery rose 8.7 percent to $79.28 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 7.8 percent to trade at $72.16. The rise followed a coordinated U.S.-Israeli operation targeting Iranian missile facilities and command centers, reportedly resulting in the deaths of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and nearly 50 senior Iranian officials.
Iran responded with missile and drone strikes targeting Israel and U.S. military installations across the Persian Gulf, including locations in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. Reports indicate at least 11 fatalities in Israel and three U.S. service members killed, with five others wounded.
Although the Strait of Hormuz has not been formally closed, shipping activity has declined by approximately 70 percent amid escalating security risks. Safety concerns, rising insurance costs, and operational suspensions by major shipping lines have effectively curtailed crude transit through the corridor. An estimated 200 tankers carrying crude oil and liquefied natural gas have either anchored nearby or rerouted, while major shipping companies like Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have temporarily halted transits.
War risk insurance premiums have risen by up to 50 percent, significantly increasing passage costs. The strait remains a vital energy chokepoint, facilitating the daily movement of 20–21 million barrels of crude, condensate, and petroleum products—roughly 20 percent of global daily oil consumption and nearly 30 percent of total seaborne crude trade.
While Dangote Petroleum Refinery navigates these challenges, Dangote’s broader industrial vision aims to address energy deficits and stimulate growth. He said refining is only one phase of a larger strategy that includes steel, electricity, and port development.
“We have to industrialise Africa,” Dangote said in a recent interview with The New York Times, noting the importance of expanding electricity access alongside industrial and manufacturing growth.
The Dangote Group currently operates over 1.5 megawatts of electricity, while Nigeria’s national generation struggles below 5,000 MW. Dangote emphasised that a reliable power supply is essential for economic growth.
According to a statement from the group, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals is now operational, producing about 650,000 barrels of refined products daily. Output is expected to double within three years as expansion plans progress.
“The refinery alone currently employs about 30,000 workers, approximately 80 percent of them Nigerians. Expansion across new sectors is expected to raise total employment within the group to about 65,000,” the statement added.
Dangote also announced plans to list shares in the refinery on the Nigerian stock market to broaden local participation. Despite progress, he acknowledged challenges, including logistics bottlenecks and inefficiencies in crude supply to the refinery.
“Nobody dared to do it, so we did it,” Dangote said, stressing that large-scale private investment is key to transforming Nigeria’s industrial landscape. His vision aims to reduce import dependence, retain economic value within Africa, and address the country’s urgent need for jobs, as Nigeria will require 40–50 million new positions by 2030.
Industry observers note that Dangote’s foray into power generation, steel, and port infrastructure complements his downstream investments, including the recent petrol price adjustments, signalling a holistic approach to industrialisation and energy security.
Energy analysts warn that the current increase in petrol prices, while influenced by global crude market volatility, also reflects Dangote’s long-term strategy to strengthen Nigeria’s domestic energy sector. The refinery’s N874-per-litre gantry price sets the stage for retail rates that could reach or exceed N1,000, particularly if international tensions continue to push crude oil prices higher.
The development underscores the continued sensitivity of Nigeria’s fuel pricing structure to global market movements, even as the country seeks to expand domestic refining capacity. JPMorgan’s projections highlight potential volatility in global energy markets, especially if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist.
Dangote’s broader industrial ambitions, from electricity generation to steel and port development, indicate that the private sector will play a pivotal role in mitigating such vulnerabilities while enhancing domestic energy production and economic resilience.
With refining, electricity, steel, and logistics expansion on the horizon, Dangote aims not only to stabilise the domestic fuel supply but also to drive Nigeria’s industrialisation, create employment, and strengthen Africa’s manufacturing base.
Credit: Punch