Russia’s current account surplus hit a record of $70.1 billion in the second quarter of the year, as surging revenues from energy and commodity exports helped offset the impact of US and European sanctions imposed over President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
The current-account surplus, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, was the widest since at least 1994, according to data released by the central bank Monday. A collapse in imports driven by the sanctions contributed to the surplus, which has emerged as a key economic lifeline for the Kremlin as the US and its allies try to isolate it. For the first six months of 2022, the surplus reached $138.5 billion, the central bank said.
Exports were $153.1 billion in the second quarter, down slightly from $166.4 billion in the first, according to the Bank of Russia. Imports also declined, to $72.3 billion from $88.7 billion.
What Bloomberg Economics Says…
“A ballooning trade surplus says a lot about what’s going right for Russia, from high commodity prices to sustained demand from many export partners. But it’s also a symptom of distress, with a plunge in imports sowing disruption throughout the economy.” –Scott Johnson, Russia economist
The latest data suggest the surplus widened in June to about $28 billion from an estimated $14 billion in May. The Bank of Russia doesn’t break out monthly data, but the figures can be estimated by subtracting numbers from earlier reports.
Since the invasion, Russia has stopped releasing detailed data on imports and exports but flows can be estimated from figures released by partner countries. In May, there were signs imports had stabilized with five countries accounting for about half of Russia’s trade as the economy adapted and business began to find new routes for shipments.
The surging current account surplus, combined with strict capital controls that have limited demand for foreign exchange, have helped make the ruble the best-performing currency this year among its emerging-markets peers.
Credit: Yahoo News